Go back to the post titled "Science and Research Overview" and re-read it. Think back to some of your real-life instances where you made an educated guess about something only to learn that you were wrong.
I'm looking for something similar to the Wegman's example mentioned in that post.
What went wrong? What "variable" did you miss?
Post your examples as comments here.
Peace,
Jack
I think the biggest example of a wrong theory I have had really has to do with roommates. This follows along with the Wegmans example because I have always had a set of criteria I follow when picking a roommate (much like picking a register line), however, I have been wrong a lot. Some of the criteria I look for in a roommate is someone who is clean, doesn't stay up late, and someone who has similar interests to me. When I have used this criteria in the past I have realized I have not found people like me at all and sometimes it has ended badly. The variables I missed here were more specific criteria such as "do they like to party or stay in?" and "what kind of music do you like?"
ReplyDeleteI feel that, for me at least, choosing between concerts is where this is most prevalent to me. For example, two bands that I really like were playing at a festival I attended this past weekend. The issue that arose was the main stages headliner was playing at the same time as a more underground act that I had been dying to see. I weighed out the options and my final list of variables went something along the lines of, "will this small underground act ever come back to the US" or "I wonder how much longer the headliners will be around" (they were celebrating 37 years together) or "which will be more musically fulfilling and inspirational" or "which one will I have more fun at during the actual performance" So after thinking this through I decided to go with the headliner, which by no means was a bad decision, the headlining band was amazing and the crowd was extremely into it (as was I), but looking back I feel like seeing the underground band from Iceland would have been more musically satisfying.
ReplyDeleteSo this is a really bad habit I have that I absolutely know will be coming back to bite me when I'm older, but it's a great example of a bad/wrong theory: I always think I can "hold it." I always put off going to the bathroom because I prioritize everything else and am too lazy to get up and go to the restroom when I first feel the urge. One clear example was one day I was in my dorm room working on my computer at 5PM. I knew that I should probably go pee, but the bathroom was SO far away. And I needed to finish the film I was watching for my Spanish class. And then some time passed and again, I faced the dilemma: to pee or not to pee. But yet again, I decided that BuzzFeed articles and Youtube videos, a little bit of planning for the film I was producing for the semester (which led down it's own time consuming rabbit hole), and reading for another class were all more important than simply going to the bathroom. At this point it was 10PM, and my bladder wasn't having it. So much so that I ran out of my room, down the hallway, and to the bathroom because the need to pee was too much. But wouldn't you know it? When I got there both stalls were taken. I had to dance around a little until someone came out, but just as they did I knew it was a little too late. I didn't fully pee, but a little came out before I had fully reached the seat. So while nothing disastrous, it was still obviously not my intention, and I was left with a sense of regret.
ReplyDeleteThis example relates to the bad theory because I very clearly weighed my options, and even though technically I knew the better choice (unlike in the Wegman's example) I still chose poorly, and thus I paid the price. Had I thought ahead and just gone as soon as I needed to (or had at least thought about the possibility that both stalls might be taken), I potentially could have saved myself from some personal humiliation and impending health problems.
But I also make educated guesses when I'm sitting in traffic. I think that if I switch lanes and go to the one that's moving quickly, I'll get home quicker. However, it never works out. Just as soon as I get into the other lane, the one I was originally in picks up and ends up going quicker than the one that had been.